Now the Barniere government, a mixture of Macronians and the moderate right, is starting. How long will it last ?

It took a long time to give birth, but just before 8 p.m. yesterday, Alexis Kohler climbed the steps of the Elysee Palace and announced the names of the 39 ministers in Michel Barnier’s government. On Monday, the ministers will meet in Matignon for an initial working session. A meeting of the Council of Ministers was held at 3 p.m. after this.

This new team illustrates the alliance between progressive Macronism and the conservative right that emerged from the last legislative elections, in which neither side emerged victorious. Number four, Bruno Retailleau, is the strongman and inherits the Interior Ministry. As president of the LR group in the Senate, he has the most political clout. The Vendée man will also give a right-wing flavor to the whole thing. Last fall, he made Gérard Darmanin’s immigration law much tougher.

Within the Barnier government, Rachida Dati is the only personality really known to the French, as the Parisian politician retains the Ministry of Culture. Six other outgoing ministers are also part of the cast. Sébastien Lecornu also retains his portfolio, Defense, and now becomes the longest-serving minister since the beginning of the Macron presidency. The other four have been assigned new sectors: Agnès Pannier-Runacher Ecology, Jean-Noël Barrot Foreign Affairs, Catherine Vautrin Local Authorities, Guillaume Kasbarian Civil Service, and Marina Ferrari Tourism Economy. Geneviève Darrieussecq, MoDem deputy for the Landes, returns as Minister of Health, having previously worked in the teams of Philippe, Castex and Borne.

Rachida Dati , Minister of Culture

Overall, despite its defeat in the legislative elections, the presidential bloc occupies almost half of the government posts. However, in an attempt to break this image of continuity, Michel Barnier has resorted to new faces in the Assembly, unknown to the general public, to fill several key portfolios reserved for the renaissance quota. At only 33 years old, Antoine Armand, chairman of the Palais-Bourbon Economic Affairs Committee, will take the reins in Bermuda. At the same age, Maud Bregeon, already accustomed to television appearances, becomes spokesperson. Anne Genetet is in charge of Education and Astrid Panosyan-Bouvet of Labor. The Ministry of Solidarity falls to Horizons for the North MP Paul Christophe, elected since 2017. On the other hand, it is a former deputy, Laurent Saint-Martin, 39, who takes over the Budget portfolio. He will report directly to Michel Barnier.

In total, the Republicans have 11 posts. In addition to Bruno Retailleau, Annie Genevard, LR Secretary General, is in charge of Agriculture and François-Noël Bu, chairman of the Senate Law Committee, for Overseas, where explosive issues are piling up. Laurence Garnier, Senator for Loire-Atlantique, is Secretary of State for Consumer Affairs. Last Friday, his alleged presence on the Family Affairs Commission sparked outrage from the central bloc because of his opposition to marriage for all and the constitutionalization of abortion. Alerted in particular by former minister Clément Beaune, the Head of State himself expressed his concern. Laurent Wauquiez was named for Bercy in the list that Michel Barnier gave to Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday at the Elysée Palace. Yesterday, it was no longer there. The president of the Assemblée Droite Républicaine group rejected the prime minister’s offer. He was only interested in Beauvau.

Michel Barnier will have convinced only one leftist to be part of his team, which will appear very unbalanced. Didier Migaud, former Socialist Party deputy for Isère and president of the High Authority for Transparency in Public Life, became Minister of Justice and number two. How will the tandem that Migaud forms with Bruno Retailleau function, considering that the one that Gérard Darmanin and Éric Dupond-Moretti formed has been operating flawlessly for the last four years? Overall, the collective seems fragile because of these differences. There are bound to be setbacks.

Dealing with discontent

On October 1, Michel Barnier will deliver his general policy address to the Assembly. For him, the formation of the government was a first test. They make no secret of it in Matignon. “This was the most complicated composition of the Vᵉ Republic; the Prime Minister had to manage a complex and unprecedented configuration, ” his entourage claims. On this occasion, the former European Commissioner was able to assess his room for maneuver. With Emmanuel Macron, who generally gave him a free hand, he had to discuss the identity of the Foreign Affairs Minister on several occasions. Initially, Michel Barnier had chosen Jean-Dominique Senard, president of Renault. The head of state vetoed it.

The Prime Minister, for his part, refused to nominate Gérald Darmanin, a candidate for the post who is close to the Elysée President. The tête-à-tête he had with the Interior Minister on September 14 did not go well. Very anxious to control the composition of his team until the end, Michel Barnier also had to deal with the discontent of Gabriel Attal, who feels marginalized despite the fact that the Ensemble pour la République group, which he chairs, is the largest within the relative majority, and also of Marc Fesneau, leader of the MoDem, who was not involved in the choice of ministers from his camp.

Will the team put together by Michel Barnier be strong enough to weather the storms ahead? In any case, the prime minister did not fight for heavyweights. On September 13, he had breakfast with Xavier Bertrand. But he did not offer him a position. After blocking his path in Marseille, Marine Le Pen promised that if the Hauts-de-France leader entered the government, she would censure him. On the same day, she received Valérie Pécresse.

He offered the Quai d’Orsay to the former presidential candidate. She declined. To her host, the President of the Île-de-France Region indicated that the only portfolio that might interest her would be a large Bercy, where she would lead a commando mission to improve public accounts. In the course of their exchange, she realized that this would be impossible: the new tenant of Matignon wanted only ministries of limited scope.

Meanwhile, the left has already announced its first motion of censure, and the government’s survival is tied to the neutral benevolence of the right wing of Eric Ciotti, who has now left LR, and Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National.

These forces, of course, will not enter the government, but they have obtained guarantees, not to send Barnier home on day one, and they will want to collect their price.