European elections: Macron lapped by Le Pen’s Rassemblement National

In France, Macron is starting to get a little scared ahead of the upcoming European elections because the polls are not exactly optimal for the government area.

Throughout this whole campaign for the European elections, which seems more like a way of the cross than a way of roses for the majority, strategists in the Macron camp have tried to reassure themselves by believing that the momentum would come after the Head of State’s speech at the Sorbonne, then after the bridge days in May, then with the debates…

Yet, two weeks before the polls, in the OpinionWay-Vae Solis barometer for “Les Echos” and Radio Classique, the gap continues to widen between Jordan Bardella’s Rassemblement National list, up 1 point in a week to 32 percent of voting intentions, and Valérie Hayer’s list, down 1 point to 15 percent. The Presidential Majority list is still only 2 points ahead of Raphaël Glucksmann’s list (PS-Place publique), at 13%, also down 1 point.

Good votes, bad votes

The Rassemblement National’s dominance remains very strong and we don’t know if there is a ceiling for this campaign,” points out Bruno Jeanbart, vice president of OpinionWay. In the long run, this is the only dynamic; Raphaël Glucksmann’s campaign has stalled. As for Valérie Hayer’s list, it has suffered a sharp decline since March, when it received 20 percent of voting intentions. It suffers from a mobilization deficit, with only 50 percent of Emmanuel Macron’s voters in the first round of the 2022 presidential election mobilized, a figure that has dropped.” Here come the numbers

Macron’s camp is still struggling to mobilize people, despite the growing interest in the campaign-as evidenced by the good ratings recorded by the channels for the debates they are organizing-and a turnout index that is rising in turn.

Moreover, the French electorate shows a great deal of fragmentation, which, on the one hand, at the level of national government, may help Macron but also indicates the great confusion of the electorate

Fifty-five percent of French people say they are interested in the campaign, an increase of 3 points in one week. This is the same level as two weeks before the 2019 European elections. As for the turnout index, it stands at 44% (+1 in one week). Two weeks before the 2019 vote-which saw a very strong increase in the turnout index in the final week and a pickup in turnout for the European elections, with a rate of 50.1 percent-it was 40 percent.