Secret Phone Call Between U.S. and Russia Reveals Growing Tensions and Attempts to Contain War

A recent phone call between the defense ministers of the United States and Russia has shed new light on the growing tensions between the two superpowers and the often secretive attempts to contain the risk of conflict escalation in Ukraine. The phone call was known to the media, but its contents had remained mysterious. Now, from the NYT, disturbing content emerges.

On July 12, Russia’s defense minister, Andrei Belousov, unexpectedly contacted his U.S. counterpart, Lloyd J. Austin III, to warn of an alleged Ukrainian plot against Russia that was suspected to have U.S. approval. The Pentagon, taken aback by the accusation, denied any involvement and contacted Ukraine to avert any action that could further sour relations between Moscow and Washington.

By now, it is quite well known that Kiev often acts without informing U.S. or European allies, and in this case, it must have planned something objectively extreme.

It is not clear whether the alleged Ukrainian plot was real or imminent, nor what form it might have taken. The fact that the Russian minister felt compelled to warn his U.S. counterpart suggests that this was something extremely dangerous. We can, purely by way of illustration, think of an attack on some important energy infrastructure, such as the Power of Siberia Pipeline leading to China, or an attack on a nuclear infrastructure, or on some important civilian infrastructure, such as railroads.

The call is symbolic of the now-growing mistrust between the two sides, such that it raises the suspicion that we may go so far as to authorize acts that go far beyond normal war operations.

The July phone call is only the latest in a series of contacts between the top U.S. and Russian military leadership, often shrouded in secrecy and characterized by very different tones from the public. These are attempts to manage escalation risks and prevent catastrophic consequences, such as the use of tactical nuclear weapons, which were discussed within the Kremlin last fall.

These confidential conversations, while not resolving the deep differences between the United States and Russia, represent a vital channel of communication at a time when the war in Ukraine threatens to widen and directly involve other nations. The stakes are too high to ignore the importance of dialogue, albeit difficult and often frustrating, between adversaries.

The upgrading of the alert level at US military bases there serves as proof that there is still a significant chance of an escalation. But as long as there is a channel of communication between Washington and Moscow, there remains hope of avoiding the worst and finding a way out of the crisis.

The future of the war in Ukraine and of global security depends largely on the ability of the United States and Russia to manage their differences and find common ground, however limited, on which to build constructive dialogue. The July 12 phone call, while dramatic, shows that this possibility is not yet entirely lost.ation.