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India will not grow like China? Likely, but still, that’s a lot of growth.



Economists at the U.S.-based investment bank Morgan Stanley said that although Morgan Stanley is optimistic about India’s prospects, India is unlikely to achieve a long-term economic growth rate of 8 percent to 10 percent like China.

Bloomberg reported that Morgan Stanley’s chief Asian economist, Chetan Ahya, said in an interview Monday (March 18) that the long-term growth rate of the Indian economy is likely to stabilize between 6.5 percent and 7 percent. He stressed that India is still far from replacing its most powerful competitor, China, as a global manufacturing hub.

Official data show that China’s economy has grown at an average annual rate of 10 percent in the 30 years since reform and opening up in 1978.

According to Aya, issues like a lack of skilled labor and poor infrastructure are impeding India’s economic growth. “These two constraints lead us to believe that India’s economic growth will be strong, but in the range of 6.5 percent to 7 percent rather than 8 percent to 10 percent.” Which, by the way, would be an impressive result.

Morgan Stanley, however, is still upbeat about India’s future, noting in a recent analysis that the nation’s current economic growth is akin to the mid-2000s boom period due to continuous investment growth. fiscal beginning in April.

A complex comparison

In fact, the fact that India is not growing like post-opening China is almost obvious, considering the differences between the two economic systems. India is not China; it is not a communist society compressed by dirigisme that is partially liberated and enters, overnight, the international economy, as happened to Deng Xiaoping’s China. India has always been in the international economic system since its independence.

It is a democratic country, with its contradictions reflected in complex, abstruse regulations that restrain its growth. This, however, is not something episodic but, if anything, a long-term journey from the past.

India is not China, but that doesn’t mean that, with ease, it can’t surpass it Because Chinese growth may not be as continuous as India’s.

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