Elections in France: Bardella (RN, Le Pen) dominates, Hayer (Macron) stalls

The strength of the identity movement Rassemblement National, led by Ordan Bardella in this round, is confirmed by a poll on the upcoming European elections in France, conducted by the French newspaper Le Parisienne.

With 32 percent of voters intending to vote, the list headed by the leader of Rassemblement National would be the clear winner of this one-round runoff if elections were held this Sunday. This is up one point from the previous Ipsos poll in March (31 percent), while its (distant) runner-up, Valérie Hayer’s Macronist list, hit a ceiling of 16 percent, down two points from March.

To such an extent that the possibility of a third party, Raphaël Glucksmann (PS/Place publique), which is also gaining momentum, catching up or even overtaking the Macronist list in the eight weeks until the June 9 vote, does not seem impossible. Observers will keep an eye on a possible crossover.
Two more months of campaigning

But it must be remembered that a poll is a snapshot of the campaign, not a prediction of the results, and debates between candidates or external events-in the current heavy international environment-can still shift the lines. In 2009, didn’t the TV broadcast of the film “Home” about the state of the planet boost the ecologists’ score (over 16 percent) in the European elections a few days later?

One of the surprising features of our survey was the low popularity of the chief candidates, most of whom have little or no public recognition, with the exception of Jordan Bardella, Marion Maréchal (of the Zemmourist Reconquête list) and, to a lesser extent, Raphaël Glucksmann. Valérie Hayer, who was appointed late and is an outgoing MEP away from the national spotlight, suffers massively from this lack of publicity, which is embarrassing for the leader of a major list (second with 22.4 percent of the vote in 2019, giving her 23 seats in the Strasbourg Parliament).

An anti-Macron referendum?

The situation is moving more and more toward an anti-Macron referendum. In general, the issues voters are most interested in are, in order of importance: inflation,, health care system, immigration, security .
The issues that drive the French to the polls are national in nature, but will influence the European vote. Bardella can best interpret this discontent, which is why he is ahead in the polls.

As in 2019, the Head of State, who has made Europe his credo, is following the campaign very closely and will speak directly in a major speech at the end of April and no doubt on other occasions. In fact, he has already made a number of appearances, particularly on the issue of the war in Ukraine. However, it does not seem that the electorate is particularly interested in this Europeanization of the campaign.