Elections in France. Bardella’s RN will win majority, Macron in trouble

With one week to go before the elections that will determine everything from the economy to national cohesion to France’s place in Europe and the world, Elabe for BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche highlights the intense reflection taking place in society. Today, six out of ten citizens say they are certain to vote next Sunday. According to our partner’s projections, turnout could even reach 62–64 percent. This would be a record for a general election since 2002.

In 2024, voters are obviously putting the unexpected dissolution that Emmanuel Macron announced on June 9 at great political intensity, hoping to set off an electroshock following the Rassemblement national’s resounding win in the European elections. “If this mobilization is confirmed, it means that the majority that wins, whoever it is, will have real legitimacy,” notes Bernard Sananès, president of the Elabe Institute. The Interior Ministry’s services have already registered an incredible interest in these elections, like never before. 

And the sky is getting even darker for the Head of State. In the poll conducted between Wednesday and Friday on the real supply after the close of nominations in prefectures, the current majority still ranks third in voting intentions (20 percent), behind the RN (36 percent) and the New Popular Front (27 percent). We can clearly see that there are two dynamics that, as always in a majoritarian election, are alliance dynamics,” notes Bernard Sananès. On the RN side, the alliance with Éric Ciotti works well because it involves no loss of votes. The same goes for the left alliance. These two blocs are making progress and Macronie seems to be quite isolated.”

Jordan Bardella’s ideas

Based on this balance of forces, Elabe came up with a projection in polling places, to be taken, of course, with due distance until the first round takes place. The Rassemblement National and its allies would win between 250 and 280 deputies, the Nouveau Front Populaire and the various left-wing parties between 150 and 170, Ensemble between 90 and 110, and LR and the various right-wing and center parties between 35 and 45. This would at least presage a “solid relative majority,” in the words of the polling institute’s president, for Jordan Bardella’s party.

The newly re-elected MEP, Bardella, reiterated this week his refusal to settle in Matignon as prime minister in such a case: “I tell the French, to try us, we need an absolute majority.” Fifty-eight percent of respondents approved, starting with his constituents (87 percent). this indicates a big decision by RN voters.

Bardella’s economic program then appears much clearer and more shared than that of the NFP.

In the second round, it will be very difficult for many moderate Macronists to vote for the leftist maximalist program, while this problem does not exist for LR voters in voting for the RN. The path of softening Le Pen’s party has worked, while the French fear the extremism of Green and communist cures. Macron has said he will vote NFP in the second round, but will his voters follow him?