Who will be the next French prime minister and how much of an enemy will he be to Macron?

The Olympic Games in Paris are over, but we still do not know who may be the prime minister . Macron will meet with politicians on August 23, but the solution for now may not be to his liking. The president thought he had won and could split the left, but the game may not necessarily succeed for him.
These are the most likely candidates for prime minister, whose appointment will depend on next week’s political games

Lucie Castets

Lucie Castets “can’t wait for cohabitation to begin,”  she told La Marseillaise in an interview on Friday. Emmanuel Macron, who has already rejected Matignon, the candidate of the New Popular Front, does not share this enthusiasm. As soon as the 37-year-old senior civil servant was nominated by the United Left of the NFP on July 23, the head of state dismissed him on France 2 TV. “It’s wrong to say that the New Popular Front would have a majority, whatever it might be,” he said, dismissing, without naming her, the option of Lucie Castets. “The question is not a name. The question is what majority can be achieved in the  Assembly,” he added, given that the NFP only has a very relative majority.

After two weeks of tough negotiations, Lucie Castets, Director of Finance and Procurement at Paris City Hall and spokeswoman for the Nos Services publics collective, was able to build a consensus within the Nouveau Front Populaire thanks to her civil society profile. But the economist, previously unknown to the general public, is still struggling to become a unifying figure on the left. In an effort to accommodate the sensitivities of each of the four parties that make up the NFP, she refused to share her position on nuclear energy or to react to the polemical remarks made by certain LFI elected representatives on welcoming the Israeli delegation to the Olympic Games. Another outcry came when Lucie Castets told Le Parisien that raising the minimum wage to 1,600 euros, the left’s flagship measure, remained a “distant prospect”. Two days later, she backtracked on her comments on X: “Le Smic à 1600 €, c’est un engagement de campagne, et nous le ferons.”

Bernard Cazeneuve

Making something new out of something old. Seven years and three months after leaving Matignon, could Bernard Cazeneuve make a comeback at 57 rue de Varenne? François Hollande ‘s short-lived Prime Minister (5 months and 9 days) could be just what government spokeswoman Prisca Thevenot had in mind. Last Monday, the resigning minister declared that the next prime minister should “be able to form a coalition with republican forces, ranging from social-democracy to the historic LR”.

With his socialist background, the 61-year-old enjoys the sympathy of the left wing of the Macron party. A few days before the legislative elections, he supported the outgoing Charente-Maritime deputy Olivier Falorni (MoDem), denouncing in turn “the xenophobia of the RN” and “the surrealist coupling of the New Popular Front” “still under the hegemony of LFI and now extended to the Trotskyites of the NPA”. A “ni-ni” position dear to a large part of the Macron camp. The challenge for the former Interior Minister will be to win over at least some of the 66 Socialist MPs who want to break with the Holland legacy, as well as the 47 Republican MPs.

Valérie Pécresse

After the right-wing turn of his second quinquennium, will Emmanuel Macron be tempted to hand the keys to Matignon to a figure from the Republicans? While his camp has already floated the names of several right-wing personalities, a new hypothesis is now gaining ground. That of Valérie Pécresse.

The day after the closing ceremony of the Olympic Games, the President of the Île-de-France region congratulated herself ona remarkable sporting and popular success”. She went on to underline the “exceptional mobilization” of “public players”. A few days earlier, she complimented the former Minister of Transport, Clément Beaune, “who had a lot to do” with the efficiency of the transport network during the Games. Is this a sign of rapprochement between the Les Républicains (LR) regional boss and the Macronie? In any case, signals of good understanding between the two camps have been multiplying in recent days. Emmanuel Macron was delighted with his collaboration with Valérie Pécresse on the Olympic Games in an interview with L’Équipe: “Three years ago, the mayor of Paris, the president of the Île-de-France region and I were competing against each other for the presidential election. And yet we worked together and I thank them for that.” The same salvo of compliments was given on August 12 in the garden of the Élysée Palace as the Ile-de-France elected representative stood smiling by his side, just a few steps away from Gabriel Attal. And while Valérie Pécresse can count on a wave of post-Olympic popularity and her experience as an ex-minister, the former presidential candidate is still suffering from her 4.78% underperformance in 2022. Her appointment could also polarize the left wing of the Macron party.

Xavier Bertrand

Mayor, MP, minister and regional chairman. In almost thirty years of political life, Xavier Bertrand has held almost every office. Although he is still dreaming of a presidential destiny, the idea of being appointed Prime Minister has not put off the former insurer, who has been busy behind the scenes for several weeks. The big maneuvers began just 48 hours after the second round of legislative elections. The current chairman of the Hauts-de-France regional council had called for a cohabitation government with a right-wing prime minister to block the left’s path to Matignon. A hypothesis that enjoys some credence within the right wing of the Macronie movement. “He’s a very competent politician who can do a great deal for France,” enthused Gérald Darmanin, the government’s third-in-command, in early August. This enthusiasm was echoed in Le Figaro by future ex-minister Aurore Bergé, who praised his “solid experience of government, Parliament and compromise”.

However, the 59-year-old is unlikely to win an absolute majority in the National Assembly. Despite his links with the right, Xavier Bertrand will have his work cut out if he is to win over the 47 members of the Droite Républicaine group led by Laurent Wauquiez. Wauquiez, who has a notoriously cool relationship with Xavier Bertrand, has constantly hammered home his independence in the Assembly. “No positions, no coalition”, declared the former president of Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, making no secret of his desire to rebuild the Right along this autonomous line until the 2027 presidential election. And even if the Wauquiezist troops end up joining the central bloc, the Assembly would still be nearly 80 votes short of an absolute majority.